TOGETHER WITH:
Howdy, Fam!
A tariff threat sixteen months out already has GM and Ford shares moving. Also today: credit's the loosest it's been in over a decade, buyers are quietly reshuffling what they want to drive, and Amazon's toaster-on-wheels just started charging fares.
Also in today's email:
Auto credit hit its loosest point in 11 years, right alongside near-record delinquencies
AI agents are coming to the dashboard, and automakers may not get to keep control of the experience
Amazon's Zoox became the first robotaxi to charge for a ride with no steering wheel at all
Keep Pushing Back,
—Chris with Paul, Kyle & Kristi
Reading time: 4 mins
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Trump Just Threatened to Double Canada's Auto Tariff to 50%
Two days after 50% tariffs hit $20 billion of other Canadian goods, Trump escalated again, this time aiming directly at the auto industry. Cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel from Canada would jump to 50% on January 1, 2027, doubling the current rate, if the threat holds.
A threatened US tariff on Canadian auto parts will be paid by [the] US auto assembly. Without those specific parts, auto assembly throughout the U.S. would halt.
The deal that collapsed Friday would have cut Canadian auto tariffs from 25% to 15%. USTR Jamieson Greer called the fallout a "tempest in a teapot," and there's real precedent for skepticism: Trump made a similar 50% tariff threat against Canadian-made aircraft in January that never materialized.
📊 Where every major tariff stands today
Canada 25% (threatened to 50%), Mexico 25%, EU 15%, Japan 15%, China 30% in/10% out. New-vehicle prices are already up $1,315 on average this year from tariff pass-through, and Toyota alone absorbed $8 billion in tariff costs.
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Auto Credit Is the Loosest It's Been in 11 Years. So Is the Delinquency Rate.
Auto lenders are opening the door wider than they have in over a decade, at the exact moment a near-record share of auto debt is sitting 90+ days past due. Both things are true at once, and nobody's fully explained the gap yet.
📊 The Numbers
105 Dealertrack credit availability index in July, up 6.9% YoY, near an 11-year high
5.5% of auto debt 90+ days delinquent in Q2, the second-highest rate in 20+ years of tracking
0.2% loan write-off rate, flat year over year
They're going after it. It's a competition right now. It's good for us.
Lenders are betting today's delinquent borrower is a slow payer, not a future default. That bet has held for several quarters. It's also exactly the kind of assumption that looks obvious right up until it isn't.
Want the full conversation?
🎙️ Listen to today's Automotive State of the Union episode for the complete discussion.
AI Agents Are Coming to the Dashboard. Automakers May Not Get to Own the Experience.
In-cabin AI is moving past "what's the weather" toward actually getting things done, and ABI Research expects it to grow from 5 million vehicles today to 70 million by 2035. The catch: automakers already lost this exact fight once with CarPlay.
I just don't think you're going to want to duplicate that effort. You're going to set up one connector and say, here you go, this is what I use now.
The lesson isn't really about AI. It's that this industry keeps underestimating how fast a mediocre proprietary experience loses to the one already in someone's pocket.
Amazon's Toaster-Shaped Robotaxi Just Started Charging for Rides
Zoox became the first robotaxi company to charge real money for a ride in a vehicle with no steering wheel and no pedals, logging 3 million driverless miles and nearly 1 million riders. NHTSA has cleared it to scale to 5,000 vehicles over the next two years.
It takes a lot of imagination, belief, resilience and tenacity to do this when you're going against conventional wisdom.
This is now a three-way race with Tesla and Waymo, and Vegas just became the test market that decides how it's judged.
We Expected Buyers to Bolt. The Data Says They're Just Walking.
Every few months something happens that should trigger a dramatic shift in what people want to drive. The data from the last few months says that's not what's happening. Compact cars are the strongest-performing segment, up 2.2% year over year, while Trucks and SUVs have depreciated faster than Cars for three straight weekly reports.
Consider this today
If your used inventory mix leans heavily on SUVs and pickups, this isn't a five-alarm fire, but it's worth checking whether your reconditioning and pricing decisions are still assuming last year's appetite.
🚘 Car Stuff
BMW is ditching physical switches for touch and voice controls, saying younger buyers increasingly expect it. The new iX3 has almost no physical climate controls left on the dashboard.
GM is reconsidering its Cadillac relaunch in the UK, citing a "rapidly evolving" market and mounting pressure from Chinese premium EV entrants. Only 20 Cadillacs have been registered in the UK since last July.
Mitsubishi's revived Montero (Pajero) debuts September 2, bringing back its iconic triple-meter gauges in a modern digital format. A North American launch isn't expected until closer to 2030.
💰 Not Car Stuff
The New York Times is testing AI-generated search summaries written with zero journalist or editor review, a first for the paper. The Times Guild is pushing back, calling current AI policies "meaningless" and demanding human oversight requirements plus a share of AI licensing revenue.
YouTube Premium is getting more expensive again, this time for subscribers across Europe and Asia, with some plans jumping nearly 17%. It's the same playbook as the U.S. price hikes earlier this year, and some subscribers are already canceling in response.
Three people were filmed climbing out of a manhole near Penn Station in Manhattan, the latest in a string of mysterious late-night sewer sightings across NYC this year. The city's Department of Environmental Protection inspected the system and found no structural damage.
1825: Uruguay declared independence from Brazil, becoming a sovereign nation.
1916: The National Park Service was established in the United States.
1989: Voyager 2 made its closest approach to Neptune, capturing the first detailed images of the planet and its moons.
