Remember when every other lady you saw at the mall had the same fuzzy Instagram boots? That was wild.

There is something that happens everywhere anytime something big enough happens anywhere. Trends and vibes and cultural moments.

For a long time, auto companies have been working to keep California interested. It’s guided emission rules and, arguably, the rush to make big promises about 2030 that *checks notes* everybody has abandoned.

So, with the title of biggest US auto market potentially shifting from California to Texas, chances are we’re gonna see a new wave of supply guiding demand guiding supply.

Let’s just hope Instagram doesn’t suddenly discover cowboy boots next.

Keep Pushing Back,
—Chris with Paul, Kyle & Kristi

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For decades, the auto industry has looked to California for clues about the future.

California helped shape everything from import popularity and luxury leasing to hybrid adoption and EV demand. If a trend took hold there, the rest of the country often followed.

That may be changing.

New data from J.D. Power shows Texas now accounts for 10.8% of all new vehicle sales in the United States, compared to California’s 11.4%. More notably, Texas already leads the nation in total consumer spending on new vehicles.

The rankings themselves are interesting. The implications are much more important.

The gap between the two states has narrowed dramatically in just a few years, raising an important question for dealers everywhere.

Texas and California don’t just buy vehicles in different quantities. They buy differently.

Pickup trucks account for 27% of Texas sales, compared to roughly 17% in California. California remains one of the strongest sedan and luxury markets in the country, while Texas buyers tend to favor mainstream brands and larger vehicles.

Why does that matter?

Because when a market grows in influence, manufacturers, lenders, marketers, and retailers tend to follow.

If Texas continues gaining share, the industry could place even greater emphasis on trucks, SUVs, financing, and affordability. Those themes already show up in today’s market, where consumers continue to prioritize utility and monthly payment over prestige.

The long-term trend may point toward a more Texas-shaped market, but recent wholesale activity offers an important reminder: demand and profitability are not the same thing.

According to Black Book’s latest market report, wholesale depreciation accelerated last week, driven largely by weakness across truck and utility segments. Truck and SUV values fell 0.36%, and for the first time in 21 weeks, all 13 truck segments posted declines.

At first glance, that might sound concerning.

But another number tells a different story.

Auction conversion rates improved to 59%, meaning buyers are still active when vehicles are priced appropriately.

Demand hasn’t disappeared. Buyers have simply become more disciplined.

The opportunity isn’t just stocking more trucks because Texas is growing. It’s understanding exactly which vehicles your market wants, pricing them correctly, and moving quickly when conditions change.

One of the most revealing findings in the J.D. Power report has nothing to do with vehicle mix.

It has to do with how customers buy.

Texas dealers generate approximately $2,200 in F&I revenue per vehicle sold, about $400 more than dealers in California. At the same time, Texas buyers are significantly less likely to lease and more likely to purchase through cash or financing arrangements.

As affordability continues to dominate showroom conversations, dealerships that excel at presenting financing options, structuring payments, and communicating value may find themselves increasingly aligned with where the market is headed.

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