🚗 Are Repossessions the Real Market Warning?

🚙 Also: Cox data shows growth, but not where you think.

December 09, 2025

TOGETHER WITH

When you post stuff on LinkedIn, you’re inviting us to be there with you, and we dig it!

Like this post by Carla Cosenzi at Tommy Car about a simple cookie delivery to their local first responders.

In case you haven’t noticed, it’s cold and often wet lately, and firefighters, EMS, and the local PD don’t get to stay home when the community needs something.

In any and every way we can show respect and appreciation to folks who spend their lives accepting discomfort and danger for us, we should jump at the honor.

Thanks for inviting us along for the moment, Carla!

Keep Pushing Back
-Paul, Kyle, Chris & Kristi

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THE NEWS

Today’s Market, Used Giants, and Buyer Reality

What do Cox’s latest data, Carvana’s surge, rising repossessions, and Tesla’s reliability climb (plus a wild new EV motor breakthrough) mean for U.S. retail?

If you’ve been searching things like “Is auto demand real,” “Why is Carvana exploding,” “Are repossessions a warning sign,” or “Is Tesla back on top,” this is the full picture in one place.

Data: Is the recovery real, or just fleet?

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Short answer: Retail is flat, fleet is carrying the load.

Cox’s latest summary shows modest improvement but little momentum.

New-vehicle performance

  • November sales: +0.4% vs. October

  • Year-over-year: –7.3%

  • SAAR: 15.6M, still below last year’s 16.5M

Where volume is coming from

  • Fleet share: 16.8%, up notably

  • Rental fleet: +16% YTD

  • Commercial fleet: –6%

  • Government: –14%

Pricing + incentives

  • ATP: $49,814

  • Incentives: 6.7% of ATP and rising

  • Discounts ticking up as MSRP-to-price gap widens

Gas under $3, slightly improving sentiment, and easing mortgage rates may help, but retail demand is still soft. November growth came from fleet strength, not shoppers surging back.

Consumers: Are repossessions the real warning sign?

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Yes — and friend of the fam, Igor Skinder, nailed the explanation.

Used sales keep rising — 36M → 37M → projected 38M — but repossessions are exploding:

Why?

  • New payment: ≈$749 at ~6.8%

  • Used payment: ≈$529 at ~11.5%

  • Insurance and repair costs also rising

  • Subprime repos can begin 30–60 days after delinquency

Sales charts say “steady.” Repos say affordability is cracking — a front-end structure problem, not just a collections issue.

At this rate, autonomous valet tech is heading toward repo-robos.

EVs: Tesla stabilizes as new tech threatens to leap ahead

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Tesla climbed from #18 to #10 in Consumer Reports’ brand rankings thanks to incremental reliability gains and consistent platforms.

But in the lab, UK-based YASA unveiled a prototype in-wheel motor delivering:

  • ~1,000 hp per wheel

  • Only 28 lb in weight

  • Potential 200–500 kg vehicle weight reduction

Tesla’s software-first ecosystem remains strong — but EV hardware innovation is accelerating fast. Customers will feel the anxiety of “buying at the wrong time,” and dealers can win by helping them navigate what’s proven vs. what’s emerging.

You can’t download more HP, Elon.

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EVERYTHING ELSE

Quick Hits

  • The USDOT is accepting public comments on their proposed SAFE rule. 💬

  • Paramount offers a hostile bid worth $108.4B for Warner Bros Discovery in a last-ditch effort to outbid Netflix. 🍿 

  • A shortage of oversized holiday decorations at Home Depot is causing prices to dramatically inflate. 🎅

AROUND THE ASOTU-VERSE

Coming Soon

Today in History

  • 1793: The first edition of the "American Minerva," New York's first daily newspaper, is published from Wall Street. 🗞️

  • 1868: The first traffic lights are installed outside the Palace of Westminster in London. 🚦

  • 1965: "A Charlie Brown Christmas," the first Peanuts animated special, premieres on CBS. 🎄

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