🚗 Valuations Stabilize. 2026 Risks Are Stacking Up.

TOGETHER WITH

Howdy Fam!

Today we’ve got a simple selection with some complicated implications: 2026 looks stable, but it’s a slippery kind of stable. The ground feels like a frozen lake, so watch your footing.

But first, we really need help settling an in-office debate.

Thanks for voting, even though we all know the “people who like weird commercials” win every year.

Keep Pushing Back
-Chris with Paul, Kyle & Kristi

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TOGETHER WITH AUTOMOTIVEMASTERMIND

Practical AI Tips for Faster Sales

Forget the hype, this session with automotiveMastermind is all about making AI useful in your day-to-day work. Join us to see how AI can help your team stop guessing and start selling faster, smarter, and with confidence.

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THE NEWS

The stories today jump from high-level data to brand-based zoom-ins, then land on a likely next big topic for U.S. retail auto. Hint: it rhymes with “Carolina,” but it’s much further away.

So far, in my years of reading and writing about the dealership network and all its upstream and downstream ecosystems, I’ve learned this: the next wave usually does what every wave before it has done. It displaces what isn’t secure, deepens the resolve to band together, and gives a pretty exciting ride to the people who know how to surf.

Enjoy.

Cox Automotive’s 2026 Outlook: Slower, Still Solid, and Defined by Fragmentation

Cox Automotive is projecting 15.8 million U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2026, down 2.4% from 2025. Their tone is not alarmist. The forecast reads more like: the market cools a bit, but it stays “good,” and the declines they expect are modest.

What Cox keeps coming back to is fragmentation, with forces pulling the market in different directions at the same time:

• Bifurcated consumers: higher-income buyers benefit from wealth effects and rate relief, while lower-income buyers keep feeling price pressure.

• A choppy labor backdrop: GDP can rise without strong job growth, which can weigh on confidence.

• Inflation and Fed risk: rate cuts help, but uncertainty adds volatility.

• Policy and EV uncertainty: shifting incentives, tariffs, and a new phase of EV supply (including more used EV inventory).

• AI’s inflection point: productivity gains are real, but early adopters may pull ahead.

This is a “slower market, tighter execution” forecast

2026 looks stable, but less forgiving. Like a gym teacher after 40 years on the job.

Ford’s 2025 Results: Hybrids Up, EVs Down, and the Mix Worked

Ford reported U.S. sales up 6% in 2025, its best year since 2019, with Q4 up 2.7%. Ford also pointed to market share gains and a strong run where it says it beat the industry trend for most of the year.

A few details worth pulling forward:

• Hybrid sales hit a record, up 22% in 2025.

• EV sales declined 14% for the year, including a sharp drop in Q4.

• Ford credited growth in more affordable trims and strong truck/SUV demand.

Aside: BMW also reported a Q4 U.S. sales decline and said EV demand softened further late in the year, with battery EV sales down sharply in the quarter.

Aside (pt2: Revenge of the Aside): Ford’s 2025 EV total (84,113, down 14%) was less than half of GM’s (169,887, up 48%). Both fell hard in Q4 after the tax credit expired (Ford -52%, GM -43%).

Ford’s results match the Cox “fragmentation” framing

Ford is just living what Cox is saying. Some stuff is selling better, some is selling slower, and mostly people are buying what they can afford. Ford’s just been in the game long enough to experience everything at once. Somehow, again, like a gym teacher after 40 years on the job. 🤷 

China-to-U.S. Production: The Story Is Shifting From “Coming” to “Building”

The most useful thread in the China conversation right now is not “are they entering the U.S.” It is the timeline and pathway for building in North America, using existing footholds and manufacturing options to reduce barriers.

The Drive’s Downshift captured a quote from Geely’s global comms head suggesting the company is weighing the U.S. question and could have an announcement in the next 24 to 36 months, with the added note that Geely has potential U.S. production paths via existing brand footprints.

Watch the factory and partnership moves, not just the models

A lot of time has gone into wondering when ships full of Chinese EVs would arrive in the US, but many of those brands have enough money in the bank to build toward the best options for breaking into the US market. Unfortunately, unlike a gym teacher with 40 years on the job.

AROUND THE ASOTU-VERSE

Dealer Conferences and Industry Events (2026)

• January 22: Public Policy Day, D.C. Auto Show, DC

• February 3-6: NADA Show 2026, Las Vegas, NV (Looking for a party?)

• May 12-15: ASOTU CON 2026, Hanover, MD

Quick Hits from the Automotive State of the Union

• Hyundai + humanoid robots: Hyundai plans to deploy Boston Dynamics’ Atlas humanoid robots at its Georgia plant in 2028, scaling toward 30,000 robots annually to automate parts sequencing and assembly.

• EV fire “Turtle” system: Minnesota firefighters contained an EV fire at a gas station using a fire blanket and the Turtle Fire System to cool batteries and prevent thermal runaway.

Full episode here.

Today in Automotive History: January 7

• On this day in 1985, GM founded Saturn to build a new small-car brand and a different retail model. It launched in 1990, hit early success, and closed in 2009.