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The early spring market is showing steady footing across wholesale lanes and retail pricing. Auction activity remains strong, used vehicle values are trending upward, and new vehicle prices continue to climb at a measured pace. At the same time, a few economic variables are emerging that dealers will want to watch closely as March unfolds.
According to the latest Black Book Market Insights, wholesale activity remained healthy in the week ending March 7. Buyer participation was strong and sell-through rates improved, reflecting stable dealer demand as inventory moves through the lanes.
Key wholesale indicators from Black Book include:
Overall wholesale market values increased 0.24% week over week
Cars: up 0.18%
Trucks and SUVs: up 0.26%
Auction conversion rate: 68%, up two percentage points from the previous week
Full-size pickups: largest weekly gain since November 2021
Used retail days-to-turn: approximately 38 days
One of the notable patterns in recent weeks is how buyers are evaluating inventory. According to Black Book analysts, condition is continuing to outweigh mileage in valuation decisions. Low-mile vehicles are only commanding strong premiums when paired with clean condition reports or desirable trims. Trucks and key SUV segments continue to outperform the broader market, generating firmer pricing and more competitive bidding.
Factored together, those signals point to a wholesale environment that remains disciplined. Dealers are buying with intent, but the strongest demand is concentrated on well-equipped units that match current consumer preferences.
Momentum in wholesale values is also showing up in broader industry data. In its latest Auto Market Weekly Summary, Cox Automotive reported that the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 212.3 in February, the highest reading since September 2023.
Highlights from Cox Automotive’s latest data:
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: 212.3
Year-over-year change: +4.0%
Month-over-month change: +0.8%
Three-year-old vehicle MMR prices: +3.1% in February
Manheim sales conversion: 61.5%, above the three-year average
Seasonal forces are also contributing to the recent strength. Tax refund season is injecting additional purchasing power into the market, helping support consumer demand as the spring selling season approaches.
Cox Automotive reports the average tax refund is just over $3,700, up 10.6% from last year, with total refund dollars reaching roughly $137 billion so far this season.
However, the economic picture is not without some mixed signals.
Additional economic indicators noted in the report:
Gas prices: up more than 13% in the past week to about $3.46
February job losses: 92,000 jobs
Three-month job creation average: roughly 6,000
Consumer credit growth: slowed to a 1.9% annualized rate
Cox Automotive says the market had begun building real momentum before encountering these new economic variables. The near-term boost from tax refunds is still present, but higher fuel costs and a softer labor market could influence consumer behavior as the month progresses.
On the new vehicle side, pricing trends suggest a market that continues to firm up, though without the extreme volatility seen in earlier years.
According to the latest Kelley Blue Book Average Transaction Price Report, the average new vehicle transaction price in February reached $49,353, up 3.4% compared to a year ago.
Key new vehicle pricing indicators from Kelley Blue Book include:
Average transaction price (ATP): $49,353
Year-over-year change: +3.4%
Month-over-month change: +0.3%
Average MSRP: $51,440
Incentives: 6.9% of ATP, up from 6.5% in January
Looking closer at individual segments, the data shows that most of the industry’s volume still sits below the headline average price.
For example:
Compact SUVs: average $36,807
Compact cars: average $27,341
Midsize SUVs: average $50,148
Full-size pickups: average $66,157
Electric vehicle pricing continues to evolve as well. The average EV transaction price fell to $55,300, down 1.4% year over year, while incentives climbed to 14.2% of ATP, more than double the industry average.
These adjustments are helping narrow the price gap between electric vehicles and traditional internal combustion models.
Taken together, the new vehicle market appears to be settling into a more stable rhythm. Prices remain elevated compared with historical levels, but current increases are closer to long-term averages rather than the rapid spikes seen earlier in the decade.
Across wholesale auctions, retail demand, and new vehicle pricing, the early spring market shows steady forward motion. Used values are strengthening, consumer tax refunds are supporting near-term demand, and new vehicle pricing continues to move higher at a manageable pace.
The next few weeks will likely reveal how durable that momentum is as consumers balance refund season buying power with rising fuel costs and broader economic uncertainty.
Tax refunds can go a long way toward a stronger down payment on your next vehicle.
Gas prices keep moving, and many drivers are starting to look for vehicles with better fuel economy.
With used inventory improving right now, there’s a good chance we can help you turn that tax return into a lower monthly payment with better MPG and fewer miles than what you’re currently driving.
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