🚗 Are Tariffs Rewriting The 2025 Pipeline?

TOGETHER WITH

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Keep Pushing Back,
-Paul, Kyle, Chris & Kristi

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THE NEWS

Are Tariffs Choosing the Winners?

New tariffs on imported vehicles have pushed automakers to pour about $50B of fresh auto investment into the U.S. in 11 months, compared with roughly $40B Mexico attracted over the last decade.

That money is coming from somewhere: models and shifts are quietly moving out of Mexico and Canada and into U.S. plants as OEMs try to escape monthly tariff bills running from $200M to $850M.

We expect Mexico is unlikely to return to its ~4M-unit production levels.

So what?

Expect more “built here, tariff-safe” metal in your pipeline.

Hybrids + Localization: Toyota, Hyundai, Kia are the Power Bloc

After warning investors about a roughly $9.5B hit from U.S. tariffs, Toyota committed up to $10B in new U.S. investment over five years, including a fresh $912M to expand hybrid capacity across five plants and move hybrid Corolla production to the U.S.

Meanwhile, Hyundai and Kia have climbed to a record ~10.9–11% U.S. market share, leaning hard on hybrid SUVs and aggressive promos to offset tariff and EV-credit drama.

The near-term volume story isn’t BEV; it’s hybrid as default with localized production.

Is Tesla’s Europe Slump a Brand Problem Or an EV Obituary?

November data show Tesla registrations down around 40–60% in key EU markets, with its regional share slipping from about 2.4% to 1.6%, even as EV and hybrid registrations rise overall.

The big exception is Norway, where Tesla just set an all-time annual sales record and logged 6,215 registrations in November alone, helped by a rush before tax changes.

This isn’t “EV demand collapsed”; it’s Tesla demand fragmented under political drama and stale product.

The Off-Road Arms Race?

Yesterday on The Automotive State of the Union, Todd Caputo asked the real question: Is anybody actually taking these things off-road??

Jeep Wrangler, Ford Bronco, Defender, G-Wagen, Hummer, Land Cruiser, Rivian R1S and friends form a small but growing “go anywhere” niche with luxury-level ATPs and fiercely loyal owners.

Now Audi, BMW and VW’s reborn Scout brand are piling in with true all-terrain vehicles aimed at that same overlanding crowd — often built in the U.S. to dodge some tariff pain and priced to print margin.

Until we see actual mud trending on IG, we won’t expect these off-road rides to get much real action.

TOGETHER WITH TRADEPENDING

Follow The Glow

You know that scene from Pulp Fiction where they open the briefcase and everything just…glows?

Yeah. That’s basically what it’s like when you open your Hot Leads email from the TradePending Platform.

These aren’t just “form fills.” These are the high-intent shoppers who’ve raised their hands — checked their trade, explored payments, hit multiple tools, and told you (without saying a word) they’re ready. With Hot Leads, we shine a big, glowing light on the customers most likely to buy, sell, or engage right now. You don’t need to chase every lead blindly. Just pop open the briefcase and work the ones that matter most.

All you have to do is follow the glow.

EVERYTHING ELSE

SCOTUS Takes On a Billion-Dollar Copyright Showdown

The Supreme Court is hearing a major case that could reshape how copyright liability works for internet providers. Music labels representing artists like Sabrina Carpenter and Doechii argue that Cox Communications ignored repeated notices of serial copyright abuse and should be held responsible. A jury — and the Fourth Circuit — agreed, awarding over $1B in damages.

Cox pushes back, saying less than 1% of its users infringe and that holding ISPs liable could mean cutting off entire households, hospitals, coffee shops, or universities based on a single bad actor.

A ruling is expected this summer — and its ripple effects could reach far beyond music.

What Do You Think?

If “close enough” AI becomes legally distinct from infringement, industries built on proprietary designs (including automotive) could feel the shockwaves.

This isn’t a prediction, just a zoomed-out look at where that logic could take us.

AROUND THE ASOTU-VERSE

A Perspective Shift Worth Sharing

We were chopping it up with our friends at Curbee during the LA Auto Show. and CEO Amit Chandarana dropped a stat that has stuck with us.

There are about 300K independent repair shops out there and only around 18K franchised dealerships. Do the math and that means your customer drives past roughly sixteen other options before they ever hit your service lane.

Curbee calls it The16, and honestly, it explains a lot about why retention feels like running uphill.

They were a great partner at the show, and the convo left us thinking a little differently about what “service convenience” should actually look like.

If you want to learn how Curbee’s setup would work in your market, grab a few minutes with them here.

Today in History

On this day in 2002, Toyota delivered its first Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicles, leasing four in Japan and sending two to UC researchers. A decade of development culminated in hydrogen-powered FCHVs that emitted only water and ultimately paved the way for the Mirai in 2014.