🚗 2026 Is Taking Shape: What The Data Says Dealers Need Next

TOGETHER WITH

Today, we’re talking about data, forecasts, and what the numbers say dealers need to thrive in 2026.

But first, it’s worth acknowledging something that often gets lost in policy whiplash, doom-and-gloom headlines, and economic fearmongering.

A lot of dealers are thriving right now.

Earlier this month, our friends at Fred Haas Toyota World set a new all-time sales record in the Gulf States Toyota region, surpassing 8,500 new vehicles sold. The previous record was set ten years ago by the same store. They broke it again on December 5.

That doesn’t happen by accident.

It happens because of leadership, culture, disciplined execution, and teams that know how to operate through uncertainty rather than wait for it to clear.

Now, let’s talk about what the numbers are saying.

Keep Pushing Back,
-Chris

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TOGETHER WITH FOUREYES

Your Data Problem Has a Deadline: January 2026

AI keeps getting blamed for not delivering.

But let’s be real, the problem isn't AI. It’s the messy data foundation powering it.

Next month, Foureyes is dropping something BIG.

Not another “solution”.

A full reset giving dealers:

• Connected data they access and control (not locked in vendor systems)

• Partner comms and consent that are actually aligned

• Assurance their tools are working off the same customer picture

Pay attention. This one matters.

Too curious to wait? They're giving early access.

THE NEWS

Cox Automotive’s 2026 Forecast: A Bifurcated Auto Market Takes Shape

Cox Automotive says the industry beat expectations in 2025. The challenge is what comes next.

According to Cox’s latest outlook, 2026 will be shaped by fragmentation across consumers, labor, policy, EVs, and AI. Those forces are pulling the market in different directions at the same time, rewarding precision over optimism.

On yesterday’s Automotive State of the Union, Paul and Kyle unpacked the forecast and what it means for operators heading into next year.

Five Forces Fragmenting the Auto Industry in 2026

Cox points to five major pressures shaping the year ahead: a bifurcated consumer trading down, stalled job growth despite GDP gains, easing inflation paired with lingering Fed uncertainty, shifting EV policy as incentives fade, and AI hitting an operational inflection point.

Higher-income buyers remain active, while affordability pushes others toward used and lower payments. EV incentives are expiring just as off-lease EVs begin flowing into the used market.

What Cox Automotive Expects for Sales and Used Vehicles

Cox projects a 15.8M SAAR in 2026, with cooling retail and fleet sales, lower lease penetration, and used vehicles continuing to act as the pressure valve for demand.

In a fragmented market, precision becomes the advantage.

Why Policy, Scale, And Consumer Hesitation Are Colliding in the Auto Retail Market in 2026

The Cox report explains what 2026 may look like. The signals below, drawn from Automotive Venture’s Steve Greenfield’s latest Intel Report, help explain why the ground beneath the industry feels less stable and why those forecasts are colliding with real-world pressures.

What’s a “what,” without a good “why?”

Auto Industry Policy Shifts Are Outpacing Product And Investment Cycles

Across major markets, regulation is moving faster than automakers can retool platforms or recover capital.

• Europe is easing combustion engine bans

• U.S. fuel economy rules are loosening

• EV incentives are fading as off-lease EVs begin to hit the market

Policy, consumer, and brand “standards” are anything but standard these days. Dealers are tasked with keeping up, but not jumping into any particular pool with both feet before they know how deep it really is.

Global Scale Is Reasserting Itself As The Competitive Advantage

Scale is decisive again.

Chinese automakers are absorbing tariffs, redirecting exports, and pivoting powertrains with speed. Others are retrenching, trimming lineups, or exiting markets where scale never materialized.

That gap is widening, and it’s being driven by China.

Car Buyers Are Responding With Caution, Not Retreat

Consumers are still shopping, but with less urgency and more hesitation.

• Trade-down behavior is increasing

• Purchase timelines are stretching

• Familiar powertrains are winning by default

If dealers are having a hard time keeping up, consumers are asking if they can meet later at the eventual destination.

Why Retail Becomes The Stabilizer In A Fragmented Market

When policy shifts faster than products, scale reshapes competition, and consumers hesitate, the margin for error narrows.

That pressure moves downstream.

Retail becomes the stabilizing layer. Translation, expectation-setting, and execution matter more when certainty is scarce.

Which is why Wall Street is already separating retailers based on how well they execute inside that uncertainty.

How Wall Street Is Reading the Retail Auto Landscape Heading Into 2026

After Cox Automotive outlined the forces shaping a fragmented 2026, and Steve Greenfield’s intel highlighted the global pressures underneath the industry, I got curious about brand-by-brand market opinions and data.

So I went digging.

Turns out Wall Street is sorting auto retailers based on execution, cost discipline, and operational clarity. None of these metrics determines how things will shake out, but at the retailer level, several factors hint at an exciting 2026.

• Asbury is emerging as a standout among public dealer groups. Revenue growth is outpacing peers, and its aggressive platform modernization is producing measurable productivity gains. Investors are rewarding operational efficiency over scale.

• AutoNation remains the largest U.S. auto retailer, with strong omnichannel capabilities and national reach. Recent performance suggests a shift toward margin protection and cost control rather than rapid expansion.

• Lithia continues to bet on scale through acquisitions and its Driveway platform. Traffic remains solid, but earnings growth has softened, putting pressure on execution. Wall Street wants scale that translates into sustained profitability in a tighter market.

• CarMax is navigating used-vehicle price normalization and inventory resets. The company is lowering margins and cutting costs to stimulate demand. Stability remains its strength, but even solid ships get rocked in volatile seas.

• Carvana’s turnaround has reshaped investor sentiment. Margin expansion, logistics efficiency, and technology-driven operations have restored confidence. Some analysts now expect Carvana to challenge CarMax on unit volume as early as 2026.

All of this adds up to a market where disciplined execution wins.

AROUND THE ASOTU-VERSE

Dealer Conferences and Industry Events (2026)

• February 3-6: NADA Show 2026, Las Vegas, NV

• May 12-15: ASOTU CON 2026, Hanover, MD

Today in History: December 19

In 1972, Apollo 17 left the final Lunar Roving Vehicle on the moon, proving that cars can enable giant leaps for science. Let’s see another industry park its ride on the moon.