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🚗 Predictions and Data
🚙 Chinese Market Shows Pullback, Lawmaker's Suggest Stellantis Does Less, and an AI Email for YOU
PRESENTING
We’ve shared our predictions for the new year; now it’s your turn.
Hit reply and let us know what big, bold, or bogus things you expect to happen before 2026 gets here, and we will back you up when you tell folks, “I called it!”
It’s what friends are for.
Keep Pushing Back
-Paul, Kyle, Chris & Kristi
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🥳 2025 Predictions, GM’s Chinese Decline, and Stellantis’s Proposed Break-Up?
🔮 Unpredictable Predictions
As 2025 kicks off, the auto world is brimming with bold forecasts. Paul and Kyle predict shifts in EV strategies, AI-driven deal-making, and even better coffee at conferences (finally). Steve Greenfield takes it up a notch, predicting mergers between GM and Ford, VW acquiring Rivian, and BYD snapping up Stellantis. Oh, and Generation Beta? They’re growing up with AI and flying cars—almost.
🏳️ GM’s China Retreat: A Roadblock or U-Turn?
Western automakers, including GM, are losing ground in China as local EV and hybrid brands dominate. With GM’s Chinese sales down 19% and partnerships uncertain, analysts predict major exits within five years. For U.S. dealers, the lesson is clear: adapt to the EV shift or risk being left behind.
🔥 Jeep Drama: Should Stellantis Split?
Former dealer-turned-senator Bernie Moreno wants Stellantis to give up Jeep, Ram, Dodge, and Chrysler, arguing for “American freedom” from European control. Stellantis isn’t backing down, touting its U.S. legacy. This political drama highlights the impact of ownership narratives on dealer and consumer sentiment.
Read the Full Digest
Get the full scoop on these stories and more. Dive into the latest trends shaping the auto industry—read now!
Check the Inbox — It’s For You
AutoIndustry.AI is a weekly email dedicated to keeping the retail auto community caught up with all the weird, wacky, and at time, wonderful things happening in the AI space.
Every Tuesday you’ll receive an email covering business moves, technological advancements, expert opinions, and helpful tips, because keeping up is always better (and cheaper) than catching up.
Sign up now, and thank us later. 🤖
Strength in Numbers
giphy / NBC
2024’s final full week delivered moderate gains across all the major indexes, capped by some slight end-of-week dips. Despite the late decline, the index remained poised for its second consecutive year of over 20% gains.
While the year was stellar for stocks, there are some areas of caution worth watching.
Big Tech Takes a Hit — Early-week rallies propelled by large-cap tech stocks pushed the NASDAQ and growth sectors ahead. However, post-Christmas trading reversed the trend, pulling most indexes slightly lower in the week’s second half.
Consumer Confidence Slips — The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 104.7 in December, down sharply from 112.8 in November.
Edward Jones / FactSet
The Federal Reserve is likely sticking to its steady path of rate cuts in the new year, slowly dialing back restrictions while keeping a watchful eye on inflation and growth.
The Target Zone — Rates are expected to drop to a range of 3.5% to 4% in 2025. With inflation at 2.8%, this range reflects a shift from a more restrictive to more neutral monetary policy.
Wild Cards — Tight labor markets from pro-growth policies or immigration reform may delay further cuts. On the other hand, a slowdown in economic growth could lead to deeper reductions than expected. It’s hard to say at this point, but either way, the direction is clear—rates are ticking lower.
Edward Jones / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, CME FedWatch, U.S. Federal Reserve
The labor market showed unexpected strength at the close of 2024, with initial jobless claims falling to 211K, their lowest level since April. This drop provides early optimism for the year ahead.
Jobless Claims Dip — Last week’s initial claims fell sharply, fully offsetting a summer spike and suggesting seasonal factors rather than broader labor market weakness. Continuing claims also declined significantly, hitting their lowest levels since September.
Jobs Report Preview — Analysts predict the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.2% in December, with payroll gains projected at 120K. Stay tuned for the December jobs report releasing on January 10th.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / RSM US
AROUND THE ASOTU-VERSE
🗓️ Coming Soon
📝 January 30, 2025 — Public Policy Day with WANADA and the Washington, D.C. Auto Show.
🦀 May 13-16th, 2025 — ASOTU CON in Baltimore, Maryland.
🥊 Quick Hits: Jobs, Phish, and Penguins
A Cybertruck carrying fireworks caught fire and exploded outside Trump tower in Las Vegas. 💥
A new wave of phishing scams are using AI to target executives. 🪝
A new Wallace & Gromit movie is out on Netflix, and heavily features penguins.🧀
🔁 Today in History: Paper, Pontiac, and Proceedings
1899: First use of the word Automobile in the New York Times. 📰
1926: Pontiac debuts. 🥂
1947: Proceedings of the U.S. Congress are televised for the first time. 📺️
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