The Future’s Already Here

Why dealers aren't just surviving—they're winning.

If you caught Steve Greenfield’s keynote at ASOTU CON, you know exactly why it felt less like a prediction session and more like a dealer survival playbook—hyper-caffeinated, blunt, and brimming with big-picture wisdom. Greenfield, the fast-talking founder of Automotive Ventures, didn’t just ask who’ll win and who’ll lose over the next five years. He delivered a dealer-centric scorecard, complete with historical context, current threats, and future-proof opportunities.

Spoiler: The dealer model isn’t going anywhere.

From Wall Street to Main Street, headlines love to call the death of the dealership model. But Greenfield countered with 50 years of facts: in every single one of those years, the average American dealer made a pre-tax profit. Add in the post-COVID gold rush of above-MSRP margins, and it’s clear—dealers remain the backbone of retail auto.

Even when OEMs flirt with direct-to-consumer models (Volkswagen’s Scout, Honda-Sony’s Aphila), Greenfield calls their bluff. “As soon as inventory risk and depreciation reappear, they retreat,” he said. Direct selling? Loud. But fleeting.

EVs, China, and Tariffs: Choose your own (dealer) adventure.

Greenfield labeled electrification “neutral” for dealers, dependent on consumer demand, not dealer desire. He pointed to new Chinese solid-state batteries that could recharge in five minutes. If charging becomes as quick and ubiquitous as gas, EV adoption could spike. Dealers win either way—ICE or EV, customers still need to buy and service from someone they trust.

But China? That’s where things heat up. BYD and other Chinese brands aren’t just innovating fast—they’re manufacturing cheaper, learning faster, and exporting aggressively. Greenfield made the case for dealers to pay attention now and maybe even consider becoming the “Longo Toyota” of Chinese imports in the years ahead. “If you were in 1957 and ignored Toyota, you missed the wave. Don’t do it again.”

Fix Ops, Tech, and the Coming AI Avalanche

Connected cars aren’t just cool—they’re cash cows. As vehicles diagnose themselves and route drivers back to trusted service centers, franchise dealers stand to reclaim lost loyalty. Greenfield’s thesis? Fixed ops will be more important—and profitable—than ever.

Then came the AI drop: “60% of dealership expenses are human capital. AI’s going to eat that—fast.” He outlined a dealer workforce evolution from co-pilots to agents to autonomous bots. Not sci-fi. Just cost-saving, CSI-boosting, margin-driving reality.

And the big takeaway? CLV > everything.

The best dealers in America focus on customer lifetime value. Greenfield proved it with a simple oil change story involving a 90-minute drive, rush hour, and loyalty so deep it bypassed 15 other stores. “The best dealers,” he said, “don’t sell cars. They build relationships.”

ASOTU CON isn’t just an event. It’s a compass.

And this session? It pointed straight toward a durable, adaptable, tech-forward dealer model—one that’s not just ready for the future, but shaping it.

Stay tuned. We’re just getting started.

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