Tariffs, EVs, and the Future of Car Buying:

We sat down with Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive, during NAMAD to cut through the noise on tariffs, pent-up demand, and EV adoption. With the auto market shifting week to week, Smoke offers sharp perspective for dealers navigating policy shocks, consumer psychology, and the next wave of competition. Here are six takeaways every dealer should have on their radar right now.

Tariffs Feel Like 1930s Vibes, But the Market Holds
Tariffs are at levels not seen since the Great Depression, yet demand hasn’t collapsed. Manufacturers are playing poker with pricing and production, leaving consumers feeling uncertain but still active. Dealers who stay agile on incentives and communication will keep deals moving even as volatility spikes.

The Best Buying Window in Four Years Is Open Now
For shoppers with good credit, this summer is the best time to buy in years. Lease programs are strong, incentives are rising, and payments feel stable. Dealers should lean into urgency messaging that respects buyer intelligence—because consumers sense prices may not stay this good for long.

Seven Million Sideline Buyers Are Still Out There
Pent-up demand is real. Smoke estimates seven million transactions never happened over the last few years due to high prices, credit challenges, and supply shortages. Those shoppers are still browsing but waiting for the right payment. Dealers who present clear, credible monthly payment paths can unlock this dormant volume.

EV Incentives Are Surging—But Inventory Could Blink
EV sales hit a record 9.1 percent share in July, fueled by historic incentives. But at the current pace, inventory could run thin by late summer. Dealers should presell with VIN clarity, educate buyers on home charging, and capture trade-ins early to build future pipeline.

Adoption Momentum Survives Tesla Drift
EV adoption isn’t going backward. Multi-car households increasingly slot one EV into daily use, while ex-Tesla loyalists explore other brands. Used EVs and plug-in hybrids are strong on-ramps. Dealers who sell the lifestyle fit—not just the vehicle—will own the adoption wave.

Chinese EVs Could Rewrite the SAR Ceiling
Smoke predicts Chinese EVs will enter the U.S. before 2028, likely through dealers. Their scale and tech could break through the 17-million SAR ceiling for the first time in years. Dealers should prepare for both opportunity and margin pressure when this wave arrives.

Jonathan’s message is clear: volatility isn’t the enemy, stagnation is. Dealers who move fast, frame payments clearly, and prepare for EV momentum will stay ahead of the curve.

Check out the full conversation with Jonathan Smoke on YouTube, and let us know what you think dealers most need to understand about tariffs, EV adoption, and the next chapter of competition.