💔 Nissan's Missed Merger, Cox on Tariffs, and Toyota's Profit Projection

The Gist

• Nissan & Honda’s $60B Merger? Not Happening. Nissan didn’t like Honda’s “be our subsidiary” pitch, so they bailed. Honda’s stock jumped, Nissan’s tanked, and now Nissan has to figure out its future solo.

• Hertz is still dumping EVs. Shelby Mach-E GT-H rentals are up for grabs at $59,995, but they aren’t exactly selling. Meanwhile, the Tesla fire sale is almost over.

• Tariff threats could wreck the U.S. auto market. A 25% tariff on Canada/Mexico trade would spike vehicle prices by $5,855 on average, crush affordability, and hit 40% of cars under $40K.

• Toyota’s profit is up (yay!), but quarterly earnings are down (oops). They’re making moves in EVs, with a $14B battery plant in North Carolina set to churn out power for 400,000+ EVs a year.

• Uber is still Uber. More revenue, but investors aren’t impressed. Robotaxis? Maybe someday. For now, people still want to own cars.

• Stellantis patented an “EV exhaust.” No, not for fake engine sounds—it vents flammable gases to prevent battery fires. Weird, but smart.

• January’s EV sales winners? Honda’s Prologue is crushing it, Mach-E is up, Ford trucks are down, and Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 is surging.

Nissan and Honda’s $60B Merger? More Like a Breakup.

What Happened?

Nissan and Honda were in talks for a $60 billion mega-merger that would have made them the world's third-largest automaker. But like an awkward first date that went on too long, things soured. Nissan’s board has reportedly decided to walk away, with a final decision expected by mid-February.

Why Did It Fall Apart?

Turns out, Nissan wasn’t thrilled about Honda’s proposal to make it a subsidiary—because who likes being the little sibling in a billion-dollar family? The deal was initially framed as a “merger of equals,” but Honda’s growing concerns over Nissan’s turnaround strategy led to an imbalance in expectations.

What’s the Fallout?

• Nissan’s stock dropped over 4%, prompting a temporary trading halt.

• Honda’s stock jumped 8%, meaning investors weren’t exactly mourning the breakup.

• Nissan is still trying to cut 9,000 jobs and 20% of its global capacity while fighting off financial troubles and EV competition.

• Mitsubishi, Nissan’s smaller alliance partner, was considering joining the merger but might not anymore.

What’s Next?

With Honda out of the picture, Nissan needs a new game plan—fast. The EV transition is brutal, tariffs loom large, and their financials are looking dicey. So, the real question: Can Nissan go it alone, or will it need another partner to survive? Stay tuned.

The Great Hertz EV Sell-Off Rolls On

Hertz is still shedding EVs like a dog in summer, and the latest victims? The rare Shelby Mach-E GT-H rentals.

Less than a year after hitting the rental fleet, these Shelby-badged Mach-E GTs are up for grabs, but at $59,995 a pop, they’re not exactly flying off the lot. That’s nearly double what Hertz is asking for regular Mach-E GTs, despite both packing the same 480-horsepower punch.

Originally, 100 were built—now, 67 are still sitting on Hertz’s site, even after a price drop from $65K in November. Meanwhile, the Hertz Tesla fire sale is almost over, with just 12 Model 3s left after last year’s massive sell-off.

The message is clear: Hertz is done with EV rentals. But if you want a black-and-gold Shelby Mach-E (with fake V-8 sounds, because why not?), now’s your chance—assuming you’re cool paying premium rental car prices for a used ride.

📊 Cox Weighs in on Tariffs: What It Means for the Auto Industry

The U.S. auto market dodged a bullet—for now. While the massive 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico haven't been implemented, the threat is still looming. Given how deeply intertwined North America’s auto supply chains are, such tariffs would wreak havoc on production, pricing, and affordability. Cox Automotive breaks it down, highlighting just how devastating these tariffs could be.

How Tariffs Would Upend the Auto Industry

🔹 Decades of Free Trade at Risk

• The North American auto market has spent 30 years optimizing a free-trade system, first conceptualized by Reagan and enacted by Clinton.

• Tariffs of 25% would throw that finely tuned system into chaos.

🔹 The Real Impact on Vehicles and Pricing

• Half of the 50 best-selling models in the U.S. would be directly impacted.

• 40% of vehicles under $40,000 would see significant price hikes.

• 10 out of the 20 vehicles priced under $30,000 would be hit hard.

• The average tariff cost per vehicle? $5,855—a 16.6% increase in price.

🔹 How This Affects Buyers and Dealers

• Prices will rise for automakers, suppliers, and consumers.

• Many "affordable" vehicles may become unviable in the U.S. market.

• Repair shops will feel the squeeze too, as tariffs on auto parts increase costs.

🔹 The Big Picture: Trade War Fallout

• $309 billion in trade was at stake in 2024 due to these tariffs.

• If history repeats, expect retaliatory tariffs from key players like China.

• The global auto industry already struggles with high costs and thin margins—this would only make things worse.

The Bottom Line: Cox remains optimistic that a compromise will be reached, but the industry is on edge. Tariffs this steep could shrink margins, kill affordability, and create chaos across the U.S. auto market. Stay tuned.

Toyota’s Profit Outlook: More Yen, More Confidence

Toyota raised its full-year profit forecast by 9% to $30.7 billion, crediting strong pricing, controlled incentives, and a weak yen for boosting earnings. Hybrid demand remains a key driver, keeping Toyota at the top of global sales charts.

• Full-year profit forecast: 4.7 trillion yen ($30.7B), up from 4.3T yen

• Hybrid demand continues to drive strong earnings

• Toyota remains the world’s best-selling automaker with 10.8M vehicles sold in 2024

Quarterly Profit Drop: A Reality Check

Despite the raised forecast, Toyota’s quarterly profit fell 28%, marking a second straight decline. North America saw a 63% drop in operating income, while China’s aggressive EV market forced Toyota into costly marketing battles.

• Q3 operating profit: 1.22T yen, down 28% YoY

• North America: 63% profit drop due to lower sales & rising labor costs

• China: Higher marketing spend to fend off local EV competition

Toyota’s U.S. Battery Plant: A $14 Billion Power Play

Toyota’s $14B North Carolina battery plant is ready to roll, with shipments starting in April. The facility will produce batteries for BEVs, plug-in hybrids, and hybrids, ramping up to 30 gigawatt-hours annually by 2030.

• First U.S. Toyota battery plant, operational April 2025

• 14 assembly lines: 10 for BEVs/PHEVs, 4 for hybrids

• Production goal: Batteries for 400,000+ EVs per year by 2030

Uber’s Grand Plan to Kill Car Ownership with Robots?

For years, Uber pitched itself as the end of car ownership. Fast forward to today: people still own cars, Uber still isn’t profitable the way they’d like, and their “big bet” on robotaxis is still years (or decades) away from reality.

Sure, they beat revenue expectations, pulling in $11.96 billion for Q4 (up 20%), but their stock still dropped 7% after they missed EPS targets and offered weak guidance. Their CEO is hyping up autonomous vehicles as a trillion-dollar opportunity, but even he admits it’ll take “many, many years” to scale. Meanwhile, they’re rolling out Waymo robotaxis in Austin, which sounds futuristic—until you remember people have been saying robotaxis will take over for a decade now, and we’re still waiting.

Uber’s still growing—3.1 billion rides last quarter—but so is the reality check: People still want to own cars, and Uber is still just an expensive taxi service with an app.

Stellantis: An EV With an Exhaust? Well, That’s Weird.

When you hear “EV exhaust,” you probably picture another attempt to make electric cars sound like their gas-guzzling ancestors (looking at you, Dodge Charger Daytona). But no—Stellantis has something much stranger in mind: an exhaust system designed to keep your EV from turning into a rolling bonfire.

The idea is surprisingly practical. When an EV battery goes into thermal runaway (aka a full-on chemical meltdown), it spews out flammable gases that can quickly escalate into a fireball situation. Stellantis’ patent proposes venting those gases out of the battery pack—kind of like an emergency pressure release valve, but with added chemical treatments to neutralize the danger. Think of it as a catalytic converter for battery freakouts.

It’s an odd concept, but not totally unheard of—Bosch has already suggested using controlled explosions to cut battery connections in a crash. So while an EV exhaust might sound ridiculous, if it keeps cars from becoming expensive campfires, it might just be a brilliant safety feature in disguise.

January EV Sales: Who’s Winning?

🔴 Honda Prologue – The Surprise Hit

• 3,744 units sold – outselling Chevy Equinox EV and Rivian R1S.

🔵 Ford – Mach-E Up, Trucks Down

• Mach-E: 3,529 (+173%) – best January ever.

• F-150 Lightning: 1,907 (-15%) – demand slipping.

• E-Transit: 230 (-80%) – major drop.

🟢 Hyundai – IONIQ 5 Leads

• IONIQ 5: 2,250 (+54%) – strong momentum.

• IONIQ 6: 871 (+15%) – steady but slower.

🟡 Kia – EV6 Holds, EV9 Slips

• EV6: 1,542 – steady.

• EV9: 1,232 (-12%) – slight dip.

🟠 Subaru – Solterra Stays in the Game

• 1,052 units sold – still in the mix.

So…

EV sales are growing, but shifts in policy (like a potential end to EV tax credits) could shake things up. Honda is rising fast, Ford’s trucks are cooling off, and Hyundai is gaining ground.

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