🌦️ Ford’s 2025 Forecast

February 06, 2025

The Gist

Ford had a record $185B in revenue last year but expects profits to drop by $2B+ in 2025. EVs? Still a $5B+ money pit.

CEO Jim Farley admits big electric trucks "don’t make financial sense"—so expect more hybrids and extended-range EVs. Meanwhile, tariffs on Mexico and Canada could nuke profits if they stick.

Dealers, take note: Gas and hybrid vehicles are still the moneymakers, EV prices are dropping (along with margins), and Ford’s future is riding on not making the wrong bet—again.

A Game of High Stakes and Low Profits

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Ford’s latest earnings report is out, and if you're looking for reassurance, well… let’s just say the Blue Oval is bracing for impact.

Profits are expected to shrink, EVs are still a money pit, and tariffs loom like a storm cloud no one’s quite sure will break.

But don’t worry—Jim Farley says “our future is really in our hands.” That’s either inspiring or ominous, depending on how much you trust Ford’s grip.

So, How Bad Is It?

Not catastrophic, but definitely not great. Let’s break it down.

  • 2024 revenue hit a record $185 billion, with a net income of $5.9B. Not exactly bankruptcy court, but…

  • 2025 profits are expected to drop by $2B or more. New vehicle launches and lower prices are eating into margins.

  • EV losses? Growing. Ford lost $5.1B on electric vehicles last year. This year, they expect to lose up to $5.5B.

  • Stock fell 5% after earnings. Wall Street didn’t love what they heard.

Farley summed up Ford’s cautious 2025 forecast as “prudent.” Which is CEO-speak for: We’re not saying ‘bad,’ but we’re also not saying ‘good.’

Wait, Didn’t Ford Just Say EVs Were the Future?

Yes. And also no.

Ford is now openly admitting what a lot of dealers have been screaming for years—mass-market EVs, especially big ones, are a tough sell.

“For larger retail, electric utilities, the economics are unresolvable.”

–Jim Farley, Ford CEO

Translation: Big EV trucks and SUVs are just too expensive to make, and customers won’t pay extra for them.

Instead of chasing Tesla’s tailpipe, Ford is shifting its focus to hybrids, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and extended-range EVs (EREVs).

What’s an EREV?

Think of it like a backup generator on wheels. It’s an electric car…except there’s a small gas engine onboard to recharge the battery. Ford says these models could hit 700+ miles of range—which means less range anxiety and, hopefully, more customers actually buying them.

And What About Those Tariffs?

Ah yes, the political wild card.

The Trump administration hit Mexico and Canada with a surprise 25% tariff—then immediately hit undo. But the issue isn’t dead. If tariffs come back and stick around, Ford (and the rest of the industry) is in for a financial migraine.

“If tariffs persist, it’d mean billions of dollars of losses for the domestic car industry.”

–Jim Farley, CEO of Ford Motor Company

For context, the Ford Maverick is built in Mexico. So are a ton of critical parts. If tariffs return, expect higher prices, thinner margins, and a lot of headaches.

What Dealers Need to Know

Here’s what all this means for your business:

  • Gas and hybrid vehicles will stay the breadwinners. Ford’s EVs are struggling, but its hybrid and combustion lineup is still making money.

  • Expect more hybrids and extended-range EVs. Ford is betting on this “middle ground” as a way to salvage its electrification strategy.

  • Tariffs are the great unknown. If they stick, prices will go up. Keep an eye on Washington.

  • EV prices are softening. Which is great for customers but tougher on margins.

Final Word?

Ford’s trying to pivot before it crashes. Will hybrids and EREVs save the day? Maybe. But for now, the company’s real moneymakers are still gas-powered trucks and commercial fleet sales.

And in 2025, that’s where dealers should be paying attention.

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