📈 December 16: Batteries, Holograms, and Hydrogen

December 16, 2024

The Gist

The Manheim Index finally ticked upward, but don’t pop the champagne—dealers aren’t thrilled with pricier wholesale cars.

Meanwhile, Ford and EVgo scored billions in federal loans, while VW scrambles to stay relevant in China with budget-friendly EVs.

Hyundai’s betting on hydrogen trucks in Georgia, though scaling hydrogen infrastructure could be a logistical nightmare.

BMW’s turning cooking oil into diesel fuel, GM wants to beam holograms into your eyeballs (seriously), and Tesla is losing ground as Hyundai and GM surge in the EV market.

Inflation nudged up, led by housing costs, but at least energy prices are still cooling.

Fuel for Thought

⚖️ Manheim Index Wobbles: Good News or Trouble?

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The Manheim Index has risen year-over-year for the first time in over two years, suggesting shifts in used-car values. Dealers might not love it, though—higher wholesale prices aren’t exactly profit-friendly.

The Breakdown

  • Slight Uptick: The Manheim Index hit 205.4 in November 2024, a 0.2% year-over-year increase after 26 months of declines. Compare that to its January 2022 peak of 257.7.

  • High Starting Point: Pre-pandemic, the Index sat at 156.6, highlighting how much higher today’s prices still are.

  • Dealer Strategies: Big groups like Lithia Motors are focusing on older, high-mileage cars and sourcing inventory through trade-ins and direct buys from consumers.

  • Why Prices Stay High: Limited supply of late-model used vehicles due to pandemic-era production slumps and fewer lease turn-ins keep prices elevated.

🔋 Ford’s $9.63 Billion Battery Jackpot

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Ford and SK On landed a record-breaking loan from the Department of Energy to build massive battery plants. Is this a game-changer for EV production or just another notch in Biden's EV spending spree?

Why should I care about Ford’s billion-dollar loan?

Because your EV inventory might roll off the line with batteries made in Tennessee or Kentucky, courtesy of this joint venture, which means potential tax incentives. Oh, and it’s the biggest loan of its kind—ever.

Does this mean cheaper EVs?

Not so fast. More batteries mean more supply, but with a looming shift in federal policies, affordability could still feel like a pipe dream.

What’s the catch?

The timeline. Plants won’t begin production until 2025, and by then, President Trump might have scrapped half the EV incentives anyway.

Did Somebody Say Free Money?

Adding to Ford’s massive $9.63 billion loan, the Biden administration’s push for EV infrastructure extends to charging networks, with EVgo securing a $1.25 billion loan to deploy 7,500 chargers at 1,100 stations nationwide.

Focused on fast-charging stalls, this expansion addresses one of the EV market’s biggest pain points: a fragmented and unreliable charging experience. With 38,000 new public chargers added this year alone, the administration’s race to finalize EV investments before Trump takes office underscores a clear objective—laying the groundwork for a future-ready EV ecosystem while spurring job creation and doubling charging capacity since 2021.

🌍 VW Cuts Costs, Courts China

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Volkswagen’s CEO, Oliver Blume, is doubling down on cost-cutting measures and local tech in China to claw back relevance in the world’s most competitive auto market.

Innovating for Survival

VW’s “In China, For China” strategy involves a compact EV platform costing 40% less to produce, aimed at price-sensitive Chinese buyers. Partnerships with local firms are speeding up product development by 30%.

Chasing BYD and Tesla

As local EV champions dominate and price wars rage, VW hopes its 30 new models by 2030 will bring back its edge.

Global Impact

China’s struggles ripple outward. Factory closures loom in Germany, as VW grapples with demand woes on its home turf.

🛢 Hyundai’s Hydrogen Gamble in Georgia

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Hyundai’s hydrogen fuel-cell semis just hit Georgia. Is hydrogen the long-awaited EV alternative, or is this a high-stakes experiment with dubious returns?

Why hydrogen and not batteries?

Hyundai thinks hydrogen solves EV charging delays. Others argue it’s like solving a problem that didn’t exist—if you’ve got time to charge, why complicate logistics with hydrogen?

Will these trucks make a dent?

Maybe. They’ve got decent range (250 miles) and serious torque, but scaling a hydrogen infrastructure makes EV charging stations look simple.

What’s next?

Mobile refueling stations for Hyundai’s fleet and a “clean hydrogen” ecosystem at their Georgia site. Stay tuned to see if this bet pays off or fizzles.

Speaking of "Alternative Fuel."

BMW is taking a greener approach to diesel by filling all new models built in Germany with HVO 100 hydrotreated vegetable oil starting in January 2025. Produced from renewable raw materials like cooking oil and food waste, this fuel cuts greenhouse gas emissions by up to 90% compared to traditional diesel.

It’s a bold move from a brand sticking with internal combustion engines while partnering with the eFuel Alliance to push for sustainable fossil fuel alternatives. With factories across Germany already switching to HVO 100, BMW is proving that even diesel can get a sustainability upgrade.

💡 GM’s Holographic Eye Candy

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General Motors filed a patent to beam holograms directly into passengers’ eyeballs. A potential tech leap or just sci-fi marketing bait?

A Campfire in Your SUV

GM envisions projecting 3D images—like a campfire or movie scenes—into each passenger’s eyes, tracked by monitoring systems. Perfect for future autonomous vehicles where touchscreens might feel passé.

Is This Real or a Fever Dream?

The tech requires advanced autonomous systems (Level 4 or 5), meaning it’s a distant reality. For now, it’s a quirky insight into GM’s imagination.

⚡ EV Sales: Tesla Slips as Rivals Rise

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EV registrations in October rose 5%, even as Tesla’s volume dropped. Legacy brands like GM and Hyundai are finally gaining ground in the electric race.

The Surge

  • Tesla Down but Dominant: Model Y and Model 3 led sales, but Tesla’s overall registrations dipped 1.8%.

  • Hyundai and GM Shine: Ioniq 5 registrations surged 26%, while Chevy Blazer EV registrations skyrocketed 1,433%.

  • Industry Diversifies: Rivian, Cadillac, and Honda’s Prologue joined the top 10, proving the market’s growing variety.

Inflation’s November Nudge: What It Means

Inflation edged up in November, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.3%, a slight uptick from the 0.2% gains of the previous four months. Year-over-year, the all-items index climbed 2.7%, fueled primarily by increases in shelter costs, which accounted for nearly 40% of the monthly jump.

Food prices also rose, particularly in the "at home" category, while energy saw only a modest 0.2% gain after flatlining in October. Despite the headline number creeping up, energy prices dropped 3.2% over the past year, offering some relief against broader price pressures.

With used car, recreation, and new vehicle prices also contributing to the rise, this latest data underscores the balancing act faced by consumers and businesses navigating a still-shifting economic landscape.

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